Half-year summary
In the first half of 2026 the Energy sector is not a single block, but comprises three markets moving in opposite directions despite falling under the same classification; the war that broke out between the United States/Israel and Iran on 28 February is the common factor across all three. In oil & gas, prices recorded their sharpest rise since the Russian shock of 2022: Brent went from around $61 to a wartime peak of $126, before falling back to near pre-war levels and climbing again toward $100 by the end of July, generating particularly high trading profits for the majors. In utilities, the dynamic is structural rather than war-driven: the $67 billion merger between NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy signals that AI data-center electricity demand is turning historically defensive stocks into growth stocks. In renewables, finally, the same classification covers two opposite markets: the Trump administration paid nearly $2.6 billion to wind developers to abandon projects already up to 80% complete, while orders at Vestas and the non-wind portion of Siemens Energy remain solid.
The underlying numbers: Brent closes the week of 24 July at around $97/barrel — roughly +59% year-to-date and +44% year-on-year, the sharpest rise since 2022. Global utilities are preparing to invest up to $240 billion in 2026 to upgrade grids for AI demand. About 30 GW of US offshore wind capacity remains blocked by administration actions, while in Europe turbine-maker backlogs are hitting new records.
The line shows the half-year's double shock: the Iran-US war of 28 February takes Brent from ~$72 to an intraday peak of $126 by the end of April; a truce brings prices back near pre-war levels by early July, before the new mid-July escalation — a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea — pushes it back to nearly $100.
Three segments, three trajectories
Oil & Gas — solid profits, but demand shows signs of slowing
Equinor closed Q2 2026 with net income of $4.84 billion (+267% y/y) and a year-to-date stock gain of 57%, the strongest among the majors; ExxonMobil (+31%), Chevron (+29%) and BP (+27%) follow close behind, all driven by crude above $90. The European majors won on trading more than on production: BP, Repsol, TotalEnergies, Eni and Equinor together posted $21.7 billion in profits in the first quarter of 2026 alone (+43% y/y), with BP more than doubling its year-on-year profit and TotalEnergies raising its interim dividend by 6%. But the same volatility generating these profits is already compressing demand: the EIA sees global consumption declining in 2026, and Goldman Sachs estimates the world is drawing down inventories at a rate of 11-12 million barrels a day to offset missing Gulf production.
Utilities — from defensive stocks to growth stocks
NextEra's $67 billion acquisition of Dominion Energy — the largest deal ever completed in the electric utility sector — creates a utility with 110 GW of combined capacity right at the heart of Virginia's "Data Center Alley." On the day of the announcement Dominion rose 9.4% and NextEra fell 4.6%, a sign the market rewards those selling scale and penalizes those buying it with equity-funded debt. In Europe the script is slower but points the same way: Iberdrola raised its 2026 guidance to +8% net income and launched a joint venture with Echelon Data Centres giving it a direct stake in Spanish data centers, while Enel confirmed a €35 billion capex plan for 2026-2028. The sector as a whole is preparing to invest up to $240 billion in 2026 for AI demand alone, a cost already showing up for consumers: US electricity bills rose 6.1% year-on-year in April, fueling the first signs of political pushback against data centers.
Renewables — two opposite markets under the same classification
In the United States the Trump administration has systematically dismantled the offshore wind pipeline: after the withdrawal of TotalEnergies' leases ($928m, March), Bluepoint Wind and Golden State Wind followed (~$900m, April) and Invenergy ($765m, June), for a total of roughly 30 GW of capacity at risk along the East Coast. Ørsted, the developer most exposed, faced a further critical phase in January-February: a stop-work order on Sunrise Wind — precisely the project for which it had launched a $9.4 billion capital increase in 2025 — later overturned by a federal judge on 3 February. The stock still trades today in the 148-158 Danish kroner range, a fraction of its 2021 highs. In Europe the order book remains solid: Vestas closed Q1 2026 with a record combined backlog of €76.1 billion, while Siemens Energy — technically "renewables" through its control of Siemens Gamesa, but whose year-to-date rally (~+30%) is driven by gas turbines and grid technology, not wind — signals that the same conglomerate houses both speeds of the segment.
The comparative summary
| Dimension | Oil & Gas | Utilities | Renewables |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 driver | Brent from ~$61 to ~$97/barrel, Iran war from 28 Feb | Electricity demand driven by AI data centers (+60% expected 2025-2045) | US stop-work orders and lease cancellations vs. record orders in Europe |
| YTD 2026 stock performance | Equinor +57%, ExxonMobil +31%, Chevron +29%, BP +27% | Iberdrola +7%; Dominion +9.4% / NextEra −4.6% on deal day | Siemens Energy +30% (gas turbines, not wind); Ørsted near post-capital-increase lows |
| Key reference point | Combined trading profits BP+Repsol+TotalEnergies+Eni+Equinor: $21.7bn in Q1 2026 (+43% y/y) | NextEra-Dominion merger: $67bn, 110 GW combined capacity | ~30 GW of US offshore wind at risk; Vestas backlog €76.1bn |
| Main geopolitical driver | Iran war, Strait of Hormuz blockade, OPEC+ | Data center race, sector consolidation | Trump administration energy policy vs. European transition |
| Outlook | Volatile prices, US inventories at lows: little room to absorb new shocks | From defensive to growth stocks, but bill pressure rising | Geographic split likely to persist at least through the 2026 US midterms |
Comparison across a subset of stocks representative of the three sub-segments. The most striking figure is the dispersion of results: within the same "Energy" label, Equinor is up 57% while Ørsted still trades near historic lows after its 2025 capital increase.
Company-by-company move detail
| Date | Company | Move | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Ørsted | +2.5% | A federal judge suspends the US stop-work order on Sunrise Wind |
| 6 May 2026 | Vestas | −3.3% | Revenue and margins beat expectations (EBIT +807%), but stock falls on Service segment concerns |
| 6 May 2026 | Ørsted | −3.0% | EBITDA +8% y/y, in line with expectations, but US impairments and higher taxation weigh on net income |
| 18 May 2026 | Shell | +3.8% | Mid-May rally on tighter oil markets, after Q1 beat and new buybacks |
| 18 May 2026 | Dominion Energy | +9.4% | Announcement of $67bn merger with NextEra Energy |
| 18 May 2026 | NextEra Energy | −4.6% | Same announcement: the market penalizes the buyer |
| 22 Jul 2026 | Equinor | +3.5% (pre-market) | Q2 results, buyback doubled to $3bn despite adjusted profit below expectations |
| 22 Jul 2026 | BP | +1.7% | Oil rally, new Iran-US escalation |
Voices from the sector
Direct quotes from CEOs and institutions, gathered from press releases and public statements, offer a direct read on the half-year's trajectory.
Estimated that around 900 million barrels went unproduced because of the war, a shortfall so far covered only by drawing on strategic reserves. He expects structurally higher prices even once the war ends, because "all the easy oil and gas has been found".
Wael Sawan, CEO Shell — Q1 2026 earnings call (7 May) and subsequent public remarks
"Electricity demand is rising faster than it has in decades."
John Ketchum, CEO NextEra Energy — announcement of the Dominion Energy acquisition (18 May)
"Reliable energy is important in a volatile world marked by heightened geopolitical tension." He linked the strength of the results to rising production and an annual buyback doubled to $3 billion.
Anders Opedal, CEO Equinor — second-quarter 2026 results (22 July)
He argued that developers had bought into a 2022 business model made viable only by incentives the administration now considers outdated. Critics such as Congressman Jared Huffman called the administration's stance an ideological obstacle to an energy source capable of lowering costs for American consumers.
Doug Burgum, Interior Secretary — on the cancellation of US wind leases
The geopolitics behind the numbers: the essential timeline
22 December 2025 — BOEM suspends the lease of the Sunrise Wind project (Ørsted), 45% complete: opens a season of legal clashes between US offshore wind developers and the administration.
28 February 2026 — The US and Israel attack Iran. Brent goes from ~$72 to an intraday peak of $126 within two months; merchant traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked.
23 March 2026 — TotalEnergies sells its US wind leases (New York Bight, Carolina Long Bay) for a $928 million payout; the freed-up capital is reinvested in LNG and shale in Texas.
27 April 2026 — DOI cancels the Bluepoint Wind and Golden State Wind leases for roughly $900 million combined: the tally of abandoned US offshore projects keeps rising.
30 April 2026 — Brent hits its wartime peak: $126 intraday, the historic high of the January-July 2026 window.
18 May 2026 — NextEra Energy announces the acquisition of Dominion Energy for $67 billion: the world's largest regulated utility is born, an explicit bet on AI data centers.
June 2026 — Washington pays Invenergy $765 million to give up its wind leases: the total US wind capacity at risk rises to about 30 GW along the East Coast.
8-24 July 2026 — New Iran-US escalation: naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Brent climbs from ~$76 to nearly $100 in two weeks; Caspian Pipeline Consortium loadings in Kazakhstan are suspended.
The employment picture: 16.6 million jobs in renewables
Beyond stock-market swings, the employment data describe a slower but equally significant dynamic. Globally, the renewables sector today employs 16.6 million people, according to the joint IRENA-ILO report of January 2026: China alone accounts for over 40% of global wind employment, while in the UK renewables already employ 30,000 more people than traditional oil & gas (145,000 jobs against a fossil segment that is essentially stagnant).
| Area | Employment figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Global (renewables) | 16.6 million employed | IRENA-ILO report, January 2026 (2024 data); China over 40% of global wind |
| United Kingdom (clean energy) | 145,000 employed, +400,000 needed by 2030 | 30,000 more jobs than the oil & gas segment |
| US (clean energy) | ~830,000 jobs at risk | Effect of the 2026 federal budget law dismantling IRA tax credits for wind and solar |
| US (oil & gas) | Employment at 2026 lows | Despite record production: automation, not demand, explains the decline |
| Texas | 283,000 employed in clean energy (29% of total energy) | Growth already slowing due to the same federal law |
The same principle already seen in Vespri's ERM report on automotive applies here: the energy transition rarely moves the same person from the same job. An offshore worker in the Gulf of Mexico and a wind turbine technician in Nevada theoretically share transferable skills, but rarely the same geography; the IRENA-ILO data confirm that the cost of the transition is distributed unevenly across regions and generations, not automatically or uniformly.
Change factors to monitor
Three thresholds to watch for anyone following the sector from a labor-market and investment perspective:
1. If the Strait of Hormuz remains stably blocked, and not just intermittently, Brent stays structurally above $90-100, but with it grows the risk of demand destruction already flagged by the EIA for Asia — a rally capable of consuming its own fuel.
2. If US courts confirm definitively, beyond the temporary injunctions already won by Ørsted, that the wind lease suspensions were unlawful, the window reopens to complete at least part of the ~30 GW of offshore capacity currently blocked.
3. If data-center electricity demand growth slows relative to current projections (+60% by 2045), the utility re-rating risks deflating as quickly as the "clean energy" cycle of the early 2020s, already lived through once by the same stocks.
The same sector, read through Vespri's other reports
The employment figure cited above (+10,581 jobs in 2022-2026 according to ERM) comes from the Employment report. The margin expansion (+2.8pp EBITDA) is examined in the Finance report. The skills profile required by the sector's job postings is in the Skills report.
Notes
Reading note: in the comparative summary table, the "YTD 2026 stock performance" row is the one with explicit price changes; the other rows (driver, key reference point, geopolitical driver) provide the context that explains why those changes occurred.